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Stocks and interest rates fell significantly in March and early April
April was divided in two. There were large stock price declines early in the month, followed by a recovery. These two movements combined meant that the overall loss in global equities in April was 4%. Danish stocks managed to recover the entire loss.

Initially, investors turned away from U.S. stocks, cyclical or “junk” stocks, as well as growth and quality stocks. However, they returned to these investments later in the month.

The turbulence in the stock markets also spread to the bond markets—particularly in the U.S.—where interest rates first rose and then fell. But the market calmed as the month progressed, and interest rates in Europe declined, resulting in a positive return for the month—though not for bonds from high-yield countries.

Commodity prices also came under pressure when the U.S. dollar initially weakened and then slightly strengthened again against the euro and the Danish krone.

Why? It all comes down to Trump, China, and trade wars
On April 2, U.S. President Donald Trump significantly raised tariffs—much more than expected—on all imported goods, especially those from China. Other countries were given a 90-day negotiation pause to agree on new tariff structures. Trump made several exceptions during April.

China responded with similar retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports to China, while the EU is preparing its own negotiation proposal.

This increases the risk of a global trade war and an international economic downturn. Consequently, the risk of negative GDP growth, reduced corporate earnings, inflation, and rising unemployment also rises. For American consumers, higher tariffs have the same effect as a large tax increase, and the resulting uncertainty about the global trade system causes many businesses to put activity on hold, awaiting clarity.

All economists agree: The longer the uncertainty around trade wars and tariffs lasts, the more damage will be done to economic growth and company earnings.

Market forces are thus being driven by Donald Trump’s statements on trade wars—or the lack thereof—and the responses from China. Because of this, market prices fluctuate up and down due to both fear of an economic downturn and relief when Trump appears to soften, especially when top executives and financial markets push back against him. He can be influenced.

What Now? The Good, the Somewhat Bad, and the Grim Scenarios

Reading market commentary and analysis from international financial institutions these days, the outlook over the next 3–12 months can—very simply put—be divided into three different scenarios:

The Good Scenario:

We’ve seen the worst of the trade war, and in the coming days and weeks, disagreements ease quickly. Trade agreements are gradually made between the U.S. and its trading partners. The high tariffs, which act like poison to global trade, are also lowered.

Global growth picks up again, corporate income increases, and defaults on corporate bonds remain low. Inflation behaves as it would without punitive tariffs, approaching the targets of the Fed and ECB, which is 2%. Central banks either keep interest rates stable or slightly lower them.

If this scenario unfolds, we will see new stock market highs and solid returns in both corporate and government bonds.

The Somewhat Bad Scenario (but not terrible):

We enter a longer period of market instability, where stock and bond markets lack a clear direction over the next year.

It is expected to take several months to finalize trade agreements between the U.S., China, and the EU. Businesses and investors will be swayed by concrete signs of negotiations, but the uncertainty about how long these negotiations will last—and what their outcomes will be—will hamper global growth for several quarters.

The Grim Scenario:

Investors and financial institutions anticipate a so-called bear market in stocks. That means major price drops, which in the worst case could be as much as 50%. The last time we saw such large declines was during the financial crisis in 2008 and the dot-com bubble in 2000. Such downturns usually last 1.5 to 4 years, and it can take 5 to 20 years to recover losses.

The most pessimistic forecasts suggest that the U.S. will make a few minor trade deals, but it will drag on—or fail altogether—to establish comprehensive agreements between the U.S., China, and the EU. A serious economic shock pulls the global economy into a recession and leads to massive disruptions. At the same time, there are more defaults, rising unemployment, and a period of higher inflation, which limits central banks’ ability to soften the downturn.

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We have once again managed to reduce the administrative costs.

LÍV’s main goal is for the company’s profits to benefit its customers.

In recent years, the company has welcomed many new customers. This means that the collective burden is shared by more people.

With the positive progress, the company has once again chosen to lower the administrative costs for customers of P/F Tryggingarfelagnum LÍV who have market interest arrangements, specifically for customers with savings established after 2012.

Starting January 1, 2025, the administration fee on annual contributions to pension savings will be reduced by more than 16%. The administration cost of the contributions will decrease from 3% to 2.5%. The saved administration costs will be added to the pension savings, so more will remain for the pension when the customer retires. The fixed annual fee will remain unchanged at DKK 150.

Since 2016, the administration fee on annual contributions has been reduced from 6% to 2.5%, while the annual fixed fee has been lowered from DKK 300 to DKK 150.

We do everything so that you can focus on your life.

Negative End to 2024, After a Positive Investment Year with Large Variations in Returns

The year for global stock markets ended with a slight decline in December, though 2024 was overall a positive investment year, yielding 25% return on global equities. December saw a small loss of 0.4%, but this minor drop was primarily due to a sharp increase in a few key American tech stocks, the so-called “Magnificent-7,” while the rest of the market experienced losses.

Danish Stocks Struggled Again: Danish equities had another poor month in December, largely driven by a significant drop in Novo’s stock, which led to a 3.9% decrease in the Danish stock market. Over the entire year, Danish stocks ended with a small loss of 0.6%, a stark contrast to the 33% higher return of US equities. This marks the second consecutive year that Danish stocks lagged behind significantly.

Interest Rates and Bond Markets: In the US, interest rates were raised as the Federal Reserve began to tighten policy in the fall, which influenced interest rates in Europe and Denmark as well. As a result, bonds experienced negative returns in December. However, high-yield bonds, which are more volatile, provided a modest positive return.

Reasons Behind the Market Trends: The economic outlook for the US showed surprising growth, with more jobs created and higher-than-expected economic activity. Inflation, however, began to rise again after having fallen significantly earlier in the year, reaching 2.7%. This unexpected inflationary increase dampened expectations that the Fed would continue lowering interest rates in 2025, putting upward pressure on rates.

US government debt is at historic levels, creating pressure for higher interest rates to finance the deficit. Rising rates have made bonds more attractive compared to equities, thus slowing down stock market growth. Still, US tech stocks, especially those in the “Magnificent-7,” have continued to perform better than the rest of the market.

The challenges facing the stock market in 2025 include the high valuation of many stocks, particularly in the tech sector, and the growing expectation that companies will continue to increase profits by another 15-20% in the coming year.

All Eyes on Trump’s Policy After January 20, 2025: The financial markets are eagerly waiting to see what kind of policy direction former President Donald Trump will pursue once he assumes office again on January 20, 2025. While most analysts agree that his approach is unpredictable, there are both positive and negative scenarios under consideration.

• Positive Scenario:
  • Economic growth and higher profits due to lower taxes in the US.
  • Reduced inflationary pressure due to increased US oil production and a trade deal with China.
  • A potential resolution to the Ukraine crisis.
• Negative Scenario:
  • Rising interest rates and increased inflation, affecting global housing markets, particularly in the US.
  • A potential trade war between the US and its trading partners, especially China and the EU, could lead to higher tariffs, reduced global trade, and increased inflation in the US.
  • The risk of stagflation, as inflation rises while economic growth slows.

The financial markets will likely be highly reactive to these developments, and much remains uncertain regarding the economic policies that will be implemented under Trump’s second term.

In Conclusion: 2024 ended with mixed outcomes, but the broader trends indicate strong performances in certain sectors like US technology stocks, while other markets, particularly in Denmark and some European regions, faced setbacks. Looking ahead to 2025, markets are cautiously optimistic, but the potential for volatility remains high, especially given the uncertainties surrounding Trump’s return to office and his impact on both domestic and international policy.

Positive November Performance

In November, global stock markets rose by a solid 7%, marking a 26% increase compared to November last year. American stocks rose by more than 10% in November, partly due to a strengthened dollar, while Danish, Nordic stocks, and emerging markets saw declines. Some of the biggest gainers were small-cap stocks and bank stocks.

There has been a significant disparity between the top and bottom performers on the stock markets this year, with a few large American tech stocks bearing the heaviest burden. As a result, many investors have not received market returns this year. Since November last year, American stocks have dropped by 35%, while Danish stocks have only dropped 3%. This marks a historic lag and the second consecutive year in which Danish stocks have trailed after years of solid performance.

A period of rising interest rates was interrupted in November by rate cuts in Europe and Denmark, which provided good returns on Danish bonds, especially long-term bonds with returns of around 2.5%. Stable interest rate spreads and falling rates also provided gains on credit bonds in the last month. In total, bonds have yielded between 2% and 6% since November last year, which is quite good.

Why? Relief After the US Election, Confidence in American Resilience

The returns in November were primarily driven by solid macroeconomic data from the US and a clear election victory for Donald Trump. This allowed the prolonged election uncertainty that many feared to be avoided. The positive performance of stocks and Bitcoin is expected to stem from lower business taxes and favorable regulation of the business sector and cryptocurrencies in 2025 after Trump assumes office.

Weaker growth figures and political turmoil in the EU led to interest rate cuts in Europe and a weakening of the euro. Fears about the consequences of Trump’s trade policies in the coming period also caused stock markets outside the US to weaken.

It appears that the Trump election victory and turmoil in Europe have accelerated the search for American stocks and confidence in American resilience—believing that the US economy and stocks are stronger than the rest of the world. The counter-argument to this is that if Trump pursues aggressive trade policies, the EU and China will not sit idly by but will instead respond by targeting the US in ways that could affect the stock markets.

Everyone is Waiting for Trump on January 20, 2025

Everyone is eagerly awaiting to see what kind of policies Trump will implement when he resumes office on January 20, 2025. Most experts seem to agree that nothing is certain, as Trump is known for saying things that can go in many directions.

Currently, there are discussions about both a positive and a negative scenario for the period after January 20:

Positive Scenario

• Stronger growth and profits due to lower taxes in the US, reduced inflationary pressure due to increased US oil production, a trade deal with China, and a solution for Ukraine.

Negative Scenario

• Rising interest rates, higher inflation, and international housing markets, especially the US market, and consumption, which is more sensitive to interest rates, are under pressure. Global trade could weaken as US trade partners retaliate.

A widespread trade war with high tariffs on products from China and the EU is expected to lead to higher inflation and slower growth in the US. Inflation could rise by 2 percentage points, and growth will be delayed, leading to an economic slowdown. Many investors believe Trump’s policies could limit growth. The rising cost of living could also lead to voter dissatisfaction, and China may respond harshly.

On the other hand, there is strong bipartisan opposition to China in the US, and with the appointment of China critic Peter Navarro to Trump’s team, there is an expectation of a tougher stance towards China.

The insurance company LÍV has extended the sponsorship agreement with Rescue LÍV.

With the new agreement, LÍV remains the main sponsor of Rescue LÍV.
The sponsorship and collaboration agreement aims to support the operations of the rescue boat Rescue LÍV and ensure that the operation of the boat remains secure.

The new agreement is for the years 2025 and 2026.
We are pleased to be the main sponsor and look forward to continued good cooperation with Rescue LÍV.

In the picture: Michael Thomsen, Rescue LÍV, and Jan Jakobsen, LÍV.”